With NASA funding, UCSC researchers and CeNCOOS have been working to operationalize a predictive Harmful Algal Bloom (HAB) model for the region.
Experimental forecasts from this model of Pseudo-nitzschia (a marine diatom) blooms and Domoic Acid (the potentially harmful biotoxin Pseudo-nitzschia releases) probabilities along the California coast are in a beta form and we are posting some initial experimental products at the link below. This interface is in flux; new capabilities will be added in the near future so keep checking back!Current HAB Forecast
Model evaluation & crowdsourcing:
There was a large Domoic Acid (DA) event in the spring of 2014, particularly in the Monterey Bay and the Northern California region. Our models worked well in predicting the rise in DA associated with that event. The models have also been working well at capturing the periodic rise and fall of Pseudo-nitzschia concentrations this past June and July, but we have not seen the concurrent spikes in DA in the models nor at our pier sampling stations. Sea lions, however, are continuing to strand with DA exposure symptoms. The outstanding question is where are they acquiring DA? We use information provided by the Marine Mammal Center to help validate the model and we are also using community reportings of sick and injured animals through the Jelly Watch app.Jelly Watch Info